There probably isn’t a prospect in the entire 2024 draft class that is more difficult to scout and truly know where he is going to fall on June 28 or 29, than Finnish defenseman Aron Kiviharju. There are multiple reasons why some of the latest rankings have him going in the late second round, while others are holding steady with him being worth a first-round selection.
Simply put, he just has not played enough this year. Injuries have kept Kiviharju off the ice for roughly 200 days and during any player’s draft year, that is extremely tough to overcome. While other prospects are getting the spotlight on them and rising through the ranks — like a Beckett Sennecke, for example, who is using the heightened attention later in the season as a way to become a top-10 pick — Kiviharju has slipped and fallen into almost obscurity.
If you are a True Prospect Freak and like to look at rankings several months before the draft and as soon as the final pick has been selected in the seventh round, you’re looking at names for the following year, then you would certainly know about Kiviharju. The left-handed defenseman who is swift on his feet was supposed to be one of the first selections of this entire thing. He was once crowned as maybe the most talented 15- or 16-year-old on the planet and was seen as a lock to maybe be the first blueliner selected this year.
And he was on the track. He made the move from TPS to HIFK in the Liiga specifically for his draft year, but after just seven games and scoring his first pro goal, he got injured and has had to recover from ACL surgery. Luckily, he was back and able to compete with Finland at the Under-18 tournament, but there were only some flashes of his skill and maybe not enough to really get the attention back on him. He is doing all the physical work at the combine in Buffalo, so maybe his draft stock will rise back and some team in the late-first round will be happy selecting him.
Pre-draft rankings
No. 23 by Bob McKenzie (TSN)
No. 51 by Elite Prospects
No. 24 by Chris Peters (FloHockey)
No. 25 by Scott Wheeler (The Athletic)
Statistics
What’s there to like?
There is, obviously, plenty to like about Kiviharju’s game — there’s a reason why he was heralded as a child prodigy so early and seen as the first-overall selection this year before Macklin Celebrini truly came along. Through his years in Finnish junior hockey, he has been putting up historical numbers considering how young he was. Making the Under-20 league at just 15 years old, Kiviharju scored almost a point per game (30 points in 35 appearances) and then just continued that rate of production in juniors, while also making a pro appearance at 16 years old.
Beyond the numbers, Kiviharju’s bread and butter has been his ability to move the puck up the ice. A “transition wizard” from the back end that has created so much offense for his team, the 18-year-old blueliner has exactly what makes a player extremely effective at the NHL level. He can breakout the puck from his own zone and be so sneaky and deceptive for anyone trying to read his lane, making it hard to really control him from an opposing forward’s point of view.
And he has just been doing the same thing for the last few years. Whenever he is on the ice, he has been able to take the puck through the zones and distribute it cleanly.
Overall, Kiviharju is a cerebral defenseman. He certainly won’t overpower anyone physically or perhaps out-skill an opponent, but he can be aware and read the game at a very high level. That is what made him stand out from his peers at such a young age, but has he done enough to improve and catch up to the rest?
What’s not to like?
This section might be longer than the previous one, just because there are so many scouts who have their doubts that Kiviharju can overcome his flaws.
Despite being a very smart hockey player and processing the game extremely fast, Kiviharju’s physical game is holding him back, according to everyone who has watched him for multiple years. First off, being a 5-foot-10 defenseman is a big enough hill to climb to get to the NHL any way, but one that doesn’t have that top-level quickness that a Quinn Hughes has? That feels almost impossible.
If you don’t have the size, you at least should have the skill and pace and Kiviharju doesn’t appear to ultimately have that next gear that makes smaller blueliners so valuable. Now, he can definitely change that perception with a strong draft-plus-one season after he gets taken somewhere in the first 50 or so picks in a couple weeks, but again, it’s a very tall hill to climb.
This can definitely be a fluid situation. Kiviharju has had eyes on him since he was 13 or 14 years old. He could be the primary victim of overscouting and people being able to pick his game apart with hundreds of hours of tape on him, unlike most prospects who might only really start playing meaningful minutes in junior leagues this past season. With that being a factor and him not being able to really play any games this season, with seven domestic games and a junior tournament being the only available example of the player he is right now, his stock sank.
Maybe that whole ordeal is needed context, or he truly just isn’t a top-level blueliner at the pro level, but Kiviharju should still be taken fairly high.
How would he fit in the Flyers’ system?
Being a small defenseman who may or may not be all that good offensively — honestly, feels like the Philadelphia Flyers have enough of those. Emil Andrae, Cam York, Jamie Drysdale, Oliver Bonk — the Flyers have defensemen of this ilk on both sides of the blue line at the junior and professional levels, throughout their entire system.
While Kiviharju’s previous accolades and pedigree as one of the most talented teenaged hockey players on the planet is certainly enticing, it feels like any pick in the top-50 could be used better for this specific team. Let some other organization maybe unlock a second-pair defenseman that is good on the power play out of Kiviharju.
Could the Flyers actually get him?
Yeah, and despite saying what we just said, if he was taken by the Flyers with the Florida Panthers’ first-round pick at 31st or 32nd overall, it wouldn’t be a nightmare. It would just say that this management is definitely fine with taking risks and massive swings for potential.
Hell, maybe the Flyers can even select Kiviharju with one of their second-round picks.
What scouts are saying
It’d been almost six months since the last time Kiviharju saw a game action before today (Apr. 18th, 2024) as he played a U18 exhibition game against the Swiss. Recording 1G + 1A he was back to playing his own strengths, passing the puck extremely well while maintaining composure. The upside with Kiviharju is clear, he’s one of the best passers and smartest hockey minds in this year’s draft. The concerns we had before his injury are still present. His game lacks physicality and he doesn’t possess as offensively high-end tools as some of his puck-moving defenseman peers. Nonetheless, his upside keeps him on the brink of our first round.
Anni Karvinen, DobberProspects
I’m a fan of the way Kiviharju plays the game and he’s undeniably one of the smartest players in the draft. He manages play in front of him with impressive poise and comfort, directing and influencing play all the way down the ice. He effortlessly advances play under pressure inside his own zone, side-stepping forecheckers to headman pucks. He walks the line beautifully, with a knack for shaping shots through to the net. His first touch on the move is always perfectly caught. He’s clever. He processes the game faster than the opposition and sees things that others don’t see. And he’s a intelligent defender who gaps up well and gets pucks going the other way quickly with little bump passes and exits in order to offset some of his size limitations.
He’s definitely most noticeable breaking the puck out of his own zone, where his little carries and outlets make a big difference. He shows deception across the line though as well, although there are times when I’d like to see him look to attack and take charge himself in the offensive zone a little more. It can look like he’s always trying to set up the next heady little play instead of just commanding it. When he does really attack, he usually accomplishes what he’s looking to as well because he’s hyper aware out there of the way the play develops. Cerebral is the perfect word. He can lack a separation gear and quickness in straight lines, which can result in a lot of resets and concerns about the translatability of his game at his size, but he’s quick and comfortable through his crossovers and usually makes the right play when he does have to turn back and regroup. He reads the game well defensively to break up plays with good timing, too. He also plays his off-side comfortably. I still like him and think his tactile game (eyes always up, picking teams apart) and high IQ will win out. He’s quietly competitive, too. But the lost year could hurt his development, projection and status. He’s going to need to add another gear as well, probably.
Scott Wheeler, The Athletic
Welcome to the poll…
A little late or a little early, we’re introducing Trevor Connelly — a player with some baggage, to be sure, but some real skill as well.
Every game I see of Connelly I go through a range of emotions and thoughts. There are some truly, truly high end moments with him, and in terms of raw quickness, skill, and determination, Connelly can be right up at the top of the class at times. At other times I’ve found him a bit careless with his shot selection and pass selection. He clearly loves to have the puck on his stick, but sometimes that love goes too far. He can skate into unwinnable situations or bring puck into low scoring areas and put soft attempts on net, but the potential is tantalizing. Slot pass rates are strong, and his offensive transition numbers are great. He’s heavily relied up on with Tri-City to quarterback pucks up the ice and he does so effectively, and very often. Could he go higher than this? It’s possible. Could he slip a bit for a few different reasons? I could see that as well, but the talent is clearly there, and with some guidance, higher quality linemates, and time, there could be quite the offensive leaning winger here one day.
Will Scouch, Scouching
Previously on the draft board:
- Macklin Celebrini
- Ivan Demidov
- Artyom Levshunov
- Anton Silayev
- Cayden Lindstrom
- Sam Dickinson
- Zeev Buium
- Berkly Catton
- Zayne Parekh
- Konsta Helenius
- Tij Iginla
- Cole Eiserman
- Carter Yakemchuk
- Adam Jiricek
- Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
- Beckett Sennecke
- Liam Greentree
- Igor Chernyshov
- Sacha Boisvert
- Michael Hage
- Aron Kiviharju
- ????
