There may not be a more divisive top-ranked prospect this year than Carter Yakemchuk–at least in terms of where he’s rated by scouts. Some scouts have him as high as third in their rankings, others have him scraping the back half of the first round; Yakemchuk’s certainly a pendulum prospect, swinging from one end of the first round to the other.
What makes Yakemchuk so divisive is his “boom or bust” profile: he’s a big, toolsy, right-shot defenseman with sharp offensive instincts, heaps of confidence, and a mean streak. His skating isn’t bad, but it’s not a strength, either, and there are questions about aspects of his hockey IQ and whether his offensive tear in juniors will translate to the pros. If he hits, Yakemchuk could be a star No. 1 defenseman; if he busts, he’s a third pair guy who could maybe run a secondary power play unit. The pendulum doth swing, indeed.
Pre-draft rankings
No. 18 by Elite Prospects
No. 25 by The Hockey News (Tony Ferrari)
No. 3 by The Athletic (Corey Pronman)
No. 12 by TSN (Bob McKenzie)
Statistics
What’s there to like?
No, you’re not seeing things on the stat sheet: Yakemchuk really did put up 30 goals and 71 points on a mediocre Hitmen team. He led the WHL in goals by a defenseman, and had the most total points of any draft eligible defensemen in the league (fifth overall, among d-men). He also racked up 120 penalty minutes, which you know the oldheads will say makes him the perfect Flyer. Yakemchuk’s imposing physicality makes him an easy prospect to dream on–a sort of Pronger-lite if he hits his ceiling.
The first thing that pops is, of course, the offense.
Yakemchuk has the classic, booming point shot, but that method of scoring has been disappearing in the modern NHL. No worries, though, as Yakemchuk’s got other options in his arsenal. In the video above, you’ll see a series of wrist and snap shots that showcase this (plus a slick backhand if you rewind to 2:33). Those puck skills translate to passing, too, and Yakemchuk’s often able to find his teammates through traffic; Yakemchuk’s also able to draw opposition to him when he pinches (he’s a scoring threat, after all), creating space for the rest of the team to set up for better scoring chances.
Starting at 5:11 in the video, you see what has scouts so intrigued: for a big kid, Yakemchuk has silky mitts. He can dangle, he can dance, and his edgework means he can make those plays with pace and speed. Add in an intense competitiveness, and Yakemchuk can be solid along the boards and win puck battles on a regular basis.
Like, come on–how can you not get excited about a defenseman making those kinds of offensive plays?
What’s not to like?
It’s that pendulum: if it doesn’t swing towards Yakemchuk’s tremendous upside, it’s going to end up more of a wrecking ball–a bust. He’s only started to really put it together in the past several months, so the lack of a track record of excellence has scouts wary. Granted, many of the questions surrounding Yakemchuk’s play may be the product of him trying to force things on a bad Hitmen team, rather than his own shortcomings.
Yakemchuk’s biggest risk is his hockey IQ. He’s not afraid to jump up on the play, but it sometimes pulls him so far out of position that when a breakdown elsewhere happens, he becomes a nonfactor. Couple that with the fact that–while he’s a nimble skater–he doesn’t have great acceleration, and he ends up chasing the play rather than dictating it. He also sometimes makes questionable decisions with the puck under pressure, whether through analysis paralysis or opting to “just do something, anything,” and isn’t always the soundest defensively or is too passive in the face of opposing offensive threats.
Then there’s the physicality. Everybody loves a big, physical defenseman, but that player is useless if they’re constantly in the penalty box and leaving their team shorthanded. Yakemchuk registered 120 penalty minutes in the WHL this past season, and while that aggressiveness is part of what makes him such an enticing prospect, it’s something he’s going to need to rein in as a pro. It’s tough to be a No. 1 defenseman if you’re in the box once or twice per game.
How would he fit in the Flyers’ system?
The Flyers have a surprising amount of right-shot defensemen at present: Jamie Drysdale currently on the roster (and Rasmus Ristolainen, technically, but we’re looking past the time his contract would be expired), Oliver Bonk in the system, and Travis Sanheim having far more success on his off-side than his natural left. However, every team is always looking for high-end right-handed defenseman, and adding Yakemchuk to the organization would allow the Flyers to be more flexible with their blue line and operate from a position of strength in any trade negotiations. Perhaps it’s Bill Matz over at PHLY who’s put it best, though: “The Flyers need a bad ass.”
Yakemchuk would certainly fit that role: his physicality and upside make it easy to dream on him as being tailor-made for the Philadelphia Flyers’ brand of hockey. Keith Jones has said numerous times in interviews, too, that they’re trying to build the team from the blue line out, and stockpiling high-end defensemen is a great way to lay that foundation. With Yakemchuk in the fold, the Flyers’ presumed right-shot defense core would be him, Bonk and Drysdale–any one of those has top-pair upside, and all three could be top-four players on a contender. That’s pretty formidable when you consider Cam York, (probably) Travis Sanheim, and another player (Emil Andrae, maybe?) filling out the left side.
The bust concern is still very real for Yakemchuk though (think Sam Morin, in a worst case scenario), but if there’s any coaching staff in the league we should trust with development of defensemen, it’s the duo of John Tortorella and Brad Shaw. Those two have worked miracles with the Flyers defense in two short years, and it’s easy to see Yakemchuk flourishing in the system Torts is building for the Flyers when Matvei Michkov joins the team. If Yakemchuk’s able to improve the defensive side of his game, he could become an impressive rover–and the Flyers defense is already trending in that direction.
Could the Flyers actually get him?
Not only could the Flyers get Yakemchuk, a few mock drafts have had them selecting him. However, the volatility of this particular draft between picks two and 14 means Yakemchuk could go as early as the top five or fall past the Flyers should a player higher on their wish list still be available.
What scouts are saying
Led by his instincts, plenty of confidence and legit skill for a D his size, he generated a lot from the back end for a Hitmen team that generated little. While his game in the WHL does come with some give and take, he’s got pro size, a pro shot (maybe an understatement given his gaudy goal totals) and an attack mentality that is complemented by an active disposition to eagerly jump off the line or into the rush — and also a developing sense for when to hold it (or back) or outlet it. He also protects the puck extremely well for a defenseman, which allows him to make the most of his decisions to involve himself in the play around the offensive zone, holding pucks past and away from reaching defenders and sometimes dazzling one-on-one.
Scott Wheeler – The Athletic
I had my doubts heading into the season, but they’re mostly erased now. The 6-foot-3 defenseman is so smart, he’s an excellent skater and he has tremendous offensive instincts. He had a rough U-18 World Championship last year, but he looks like a future top-pairing defenseman with the way he controls the pace of play.
Steven Ellis – The Daily Faceoff
There is so much to like about his game and he’s often looked dynamic. He’s a 6-3 right-shot defenseman who has legit game-breaking skill. He constantly breaks down opponents one-on-one and can pull off a lot of highlight reel moments. That he skates well and can attack with his skill makes him so difficult to stop as he often dances by checkers. His skating stride isn’t technically perfect. It can break down at times with his legs starting to flail at the end of shifts, but it’s a powerful stride and he often pulls away from pressure.
Corey Pronman – The Athletic
Welcome to the poll…
Today’s addition is a late riser on the draft boards, one Beckett Sennecke: a big, skillful right winger.
He’s got extremely soft hands and a confidence on it, even under pressure spinning and weaving off the wall or attacking right into defenders with his stick skill — regularly finding his way out of tough spots and traffic with craft and creativity. The puck just sticks to him. He also moves well in control, side-stepping checks and sticks nicely. He’s impressively dexterous and does a good job catching bad passes and handling the puck in his feet. But he does have a habit of playing one-on-one a little too much at times (though the staff in Oshawa has learned to live with it), which has frustrated some but also often thrills in sequences. He’ll dangle past a defender multiple times a game, but turn the puck over trying to be a hero when there are better plays.
Scott Wheeler – The Athletic
