We know we have been saying it a lot, but this draft class is just full of them. Liam Greentree is one of the more interesting players projected to go in the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft. And seriously, we mean it.
Unlike other high-risk, high-reward type of prospects, Greentree is neither undersized nor speedy. Because instantly, when you think of someone who can have the hockey world at their fingertips if they are just able to fix the holes in their game to supplement their immense skill — it’s usually just getting bigger and stronger to hopefully make it in the professional world. When it comes to the winger from Oshawa, Ont., it’s all about pace and being more active in pursuit of the puck.
But we’ll touch on that later. Greentree feels like a prospect that will be taken by an organization who believe they can fix that one flaw and make this player a consistent, top-six contributor at the NHL level.
Despite being on a very bad team in the Windsor Spitfires this season, Greentree was able to make the most of it and overcome the burden of being the sole contributor offensively. He went from leading all OHL rookies in goals through the 2022-23 season, to improving his stats in both categories and finished 12th among all OHL skaters in points and only hyperactive blueliner Zayne Parekh (who just won the Memorial Cup) had more points among first-year, draft-eligible skaters. The production is there, but what about everything else?
Pre-Draft Rankings
No. 13 by Elite Prospects
No. 14 by FC Hockey
No. 14 by Daily Faceoff
No. 17 by Bob McKenzie (TSN)
Statistics
What’s there to like?
Let’s get to the obvious. If any single hockey fan (and hockey executive) sees a player that is 6-foot-2, around 200 lbs., and has been one of the top scorers in the CHL, their hearts should cartoonishly shoot out of their chest. Pumping away with the supreme love and new dreams, Liam Greentree really fits what a lot of fans and front office personnel want in a very solid, dependable scorer at the NHL level.
Of course we are still years away from that being a reality, but the signs are there for the 18 year old.
Simply put, Greentree has the tendencies to make it in the professional game. He isn’t bullying people strictly due to his size, but he protects the puck well, transitions the puck consistently, and can find scoring chances from anywhere on the ice. This dude just has an abundance of tools in his toolbox, to try and find his way to scoring opportunities — and that is why he was able to score so often on a very bad team.
There is one thing that needs to be drilled in, though. Greentree is not a typical power forward. He shouldn’t be miscast as what we think is a power forward in the NHL. He does have the size and the tenacity to get physical as he makes his way to dangerous areas of the ice, but it’s not like he’s putting opposing players on their backs out there. If we really needed to make a comparison to just imagine and conjure up what you could think about, he’s much more of a Marian Hossa than a prime Milan Lucic.
But comparisons are a worthless exercise regardless of accuracy — but overall, Greentree is just a very solid offensive player. Someone doesn’t lead OHL rookies in scoring and scores 36 goals on a bad team without a bad shot. He has a variety of weapons he can use — his wristshot is his main option but he has a solid backhand and has tried to snap it in from everywhere in the offensive zone.
He can work individually and will happily take any defender 1-on-1, and use his body to protect the puck potentially better than any forward in the draft. And even better, he has top-level puck-handling skill and creativity near the top of the charts. His ability to get by defenders utilizing his skill is crucial, especially considering that one flaw he has.
What’s not to like?
Enough beating around the bush. Everything you read about Greentree has one major takeaway: He is ultra-skilled and competitive but he has lacked the drive and pace to really make him an all-around talent. He can do a lot (as we have already seen and discussed) on the puck, but off of it and even while his teammates have it, there isn’t that extra step of effort or quickness to really make him an elite talent.
If he was able to combine his existing size and skill with a vastly improved pace and just generally being more alert, then he could end up being one of the best players to come out of this draft class. But that will just take some development and that all depends on the system he gets put into.
How would he fit in the Flyers’ system?
Development has historically been an issue for the Flyers. They can take all the prospects they want with all the potential they want, but it all comes down to them being able to put the puzzle pieces together and translating what they are in junior hockey to being fully fleshed-out professionals. And as it stands, the Flyers have not been able to do that consistently with their first-round prospects.
So if the Flyers do end up taking Liam Greentree, we will just be in extreme “wait and see” mode to see if they can handle trying to fix his pace issue.
But, what he could add is intriguing enough. He would provide the skill that they need while also not being one of those undersized wingers where you have to take the bad with the good. He can handle his own and clearly, as we have seen in Windsor, he can drive an entire team’s offense by himself. Greentree probably will not and shouldn’t do that in the NHL, but it is something to consider with him being a winger — is he the potential second-line winger for a non-Michkov top-six forward line that can be everything a good team needs in depth scoring? It is certainly intriguing enough.
Can the Flyers actually get him?
One would think so. Greentree isn’t slotted to be a top-12 pick, but if the Flyers really wanted him and all the other players higher up on their draft board were taken, then selecting him at 12th overall wouldn’t be completely outrageous. Maybe it would be surprising, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Most likely, though, Greentree will be taken somewhere in the pick No. 18-24 range and with the Flyers having the 12th overall and either the 31st or 32nd-overall pick, he will be going to a different team.
What scouts are saying
He’s a big, strong kid whose game is all about being around it. He finds his ways onto pucks inside the offensive zone, stays on them, wins battles, keeps his feet moving, plays an opportunistic style, and then has decent skill and an NHL release (the puck comes off of his stick hard and quickly, and hits his spots). I haven’t seen a dynamic quality, and he isn’t a burner (though his speed is decent when he gets going even if he’s not the quickest through his first few steps), but he’s got pro size and a well-rounded toolkit and has shown more and more individual skill to build out a nice statistical profile to complement the completeness of his game. Nobody was surprised when he was named Windsor’s captain, either. He’s not going to be a front-line guy but he looks like he’s got the makings of a solid NHL forward who can play up and down a lineup. When one part of his game isn’t working, he’s got a B, C and D game that most other players his age don’t have.
Scott Wheeler, The Athletic
Greentree has continued to showcase his high-end hockey sense since our last rankings, while adding another gem to his highlight reel seemingly every week. The trifecta of puck skills — shooting, handling and passing — is rock-solid. Greentree consistently finds corners with his shots, breaks defensive structures with cross-ice passes, and creates so much chaos with his massive arsenal of dekes. While he does have a penchant for the spectacular, Greentree’s ability to build play incrementally, to make the possession-extending pass that leads to three scoring chances rather than the dangerous pass that leads to just one, is what makes him our 11th-ranked prospect. Every decision he makes serves to improve the condition of the puck. However, Greentree’s heavy skating stride really limits him. He lacks fluidity in his skating mechanics, stemming from poor posture. This leads to more energy wasted with each stride and, inevitably, more gliding and corner-cutting. If the skating improves, so will the defense — Greentree is more than smart enough to make the right plays off the puck when he isn’t out of gas. The right NHL team with the right tools to improve skating mechanics could turn him into a top-six, triple-threat forward — possibly at center, but more likely on the wing.
Hadi Kalakeche, DobberProspects
If there is an award for Most Interesting Player With One Critical Flaw, I think it might go to Greentree. If he carried a bit more quickness and proactivity on the puck, he may very well be right up near the top of my ranking this year. Greentree is extremely difficult to knock off the puck, extremely difficult to knock out of rush lanes, and extremely difficult to prevent from finding some way to create a scoring chance. The guy has been an extremely high end offensive transition middleman, one of the most threatening shooters in my database, and has very high end rates of slot pass attempts. There really isn’t a ton for him to work with in Windsor this year, but he’s clearly doing what he can. Could his lower pace, high resilience style of play translate? Sure! Is he going to be a massive producer in the NHL? I have no idea but I think it’s possible with some level of improvement to the pace of his game. He invites contact and adapts to it extremely well, but to me that’s a dangerous game to play long term. He makes it work though, and unlike almost anyone I’ve tracked over the years. There is that “ok, how is going to get out of this one…. oh, like that, nice” vibe to Greentree, and it happens extremely often.
Will Scouch, scouching.ca
Welcome to the poll…
No one! Friday’s poll ended in a tie, with Greentree accounting for one half of that, and then the mystery second half player will be tackled tomorrow. So we’ll take a day off with the poll, and then be right back with it again tomorrow.
